Bride-to-be

April 30th,2010    by Eric

Today's investor resembles the ancient hero forced to choose between two unmarked doors. Behind one door stands his beautiful bride-to-be. Behind the other a hungry tiger paces restlessly.

The lady and the tiger symbolize the close relationship between good and bad or success and failure. The old tale of the lady and the tiger suggests that storytellers long ago recognized that great success can be achieved only by risking great losses.

Until recently, most investors seemed oblivious to this fact. But the dreadful experiences of recent years have cured many investors of their blind optimism. In addition, the efficient-market concept has played a role in the spreading awareness of the close the between risk and return. According to this concept, high returns can be earned in efficient markets only by taking on high risks.

Because of the intimate relationship between risk and return, risk is very important. However, risk is so vague and at the same time so complex, that few investors fully understand the concept.

Most people possess an intuitive understanding of risk , but they have a difficult time explicitly defining or measuring it. Many of them probably associate risk with an action which can easily result in substantial monetary loss or personal injury. For example, driving a car at 100 miles an hour seems risky because the driver might easily be killed, and investing $ 10,000 in a new company planning to convert iron into gold appears risky, since the firm will almost certainly go bankrupt.

This commonsense definition of risk suffers from shortcomings. Risk is best described as uncertainty about the actual outcome of an action. Driving a car at any speed may result in one of two outcomes—the driver either gets to his or her destination or becomes involved in an accident. The possibility of an accident and the subsequent loss always exists, but the chance of having an accident varies directly with the speed. Obviously, the uncertainty about the actual outcome becomes greater at higher speeds.

What is the risk of an investment? Since risk involves uncertainty about the eventual outcome, the risk of an investment must be related to the uncertainty about future values of the investment. If for some reason the investor knows the future value, there is no uncertainty and therefore no risk. The more uncertain the future value, the greater the risk.

To assume risk judiciously and enjoy a high rate of return, investors should consider the following guidelines when they contemplate risky investments.

• Every investor should be prepared to do some serious financial and economic analysis to determine whether each investment has a real chance of appreciating in value. A person who does not investigate before investing is not really investing, but simply gambling. Profitable investing requires either a lot of good luck or hard work.

Luck is uncertain, so hard work is the more rational way to attain higher returns.

• Every risk-averse investor should diversify. Placing all investable funds into one risky asset is not investing, but speculation. Speculation is more risky than investing and should be avoided unless the speculator enjoys reliable access to valuable confidential information about the asset. An investor should construct a portfolio of diversified investments so that the invested funds are subject to a minimum amount of undiversifiable risk.

• Don't be afraid of diversifiable risk when constructing a diversified portfolio, but do beware of undiversifiable risk. Diversifiable risk occurs randomly and tends to average out to zero in a portfolio that contains more than about one dozen NYSE stocks.

The unsystematic losses are offset by unsystematic gains. Undiversifiable risk, however, occurs systematically and cannot be reduced via diversification within a given market.

For example, almost all stock prices crash in the bear markets that precede every recession. As a result, a portfolio containing 1,000 stocks from the NYSE will usually crash just as far down as a portfolio made up of a dozen NYSE stocks during any given bear market period, if the portfolios have equal amounts of undiversifiable risk.

• Diversify across different markets. Although each securities market exhibits systematic price movements that are undiversifiable within that particular market, these movements are never perfectly positively correlated with the undiversifiable movements in a different market. As a result, you can often reduce risk by diversification among different securities markets.

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Prison inspection

April 29th,2010    by Eric

I visited a prison in Lhasa, where I inspected some cells and a recreation room. The rooms were clean and the conditions appeared to be similar to other prisons I have seen in Australia and French Polynesia. I looked at a large workroom where prisoners were weaving carpets. At that time, prisoners in the workroom were singing and whistling while working. I inspected classrooms where prisoners were being taught Chinese and Tibetan. As well as generating income, the carpet making was seen as skill improvement in the hope that some prisoners could become self-sufficient when out of jail and so reduce the incidence of recidivism.

Tibet is far from perfect, with a high level of poverty, but progress is being made.

A major factor is the poor education system, but it is abvious that steps are being taken to improve education facilities throughout the areas of Tibet I visited.

In July last year, Australian Senator Bob Brown visited Tibet and reported that Tibetan culture was extinct, Tibet was a military colony and millions of Han settlers had overwhelmed the indigenous Tibetans.

The Tibet I visited this time and in 1992 seems to be totally different from the Tibet visited by Senator Brown. He might as well have been in another country.

If you visit Tibet (or and other country for that matter) determined to ignore progress, to seek out problems and look at everything with preconceived negative ideas, I am sure you could succeed in producing a bad report. People with such an attitude visiting the United States or Australia could also come up with a negative report if they worked at it.

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Dear Dr. XXX:

April 28th,2010    by Eric

I am pleased to inform you that Dr. Bliss from the University i Colorado at Boulder has successfully completed her two-week academic visit to our university from May 7 to May 24, 1999. We are very impressed by her hardworking spirit and her conscientious e forts in teaching our teachers and students. For the past two week Dr. Bliss has lectured and taught classes in listening, speaking, writing and American culture for a total of 28 hours, addition, she has contributed many books to the English Department and the University library. This experience has provided us with great opportunity to improve our English proficiency. Dr. Bliss h truly lived up to her motto: to leave the world better than she found it.

On behalf of my university, I would like to express our appreciate for the warm-hearted contribution of Dr. Bliss to our education programs. We hope that as a result of this experience, a substantial academic link in broader areas can be established between our univesities.

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Food and Talk

April 27th,2010    by Eric

Last week at a dinner-party, the hostess asked me to sit next to Mrs Rumbold. Mrs Rumbold was a large, unsmiling lady in a tight black dress. She did not even 5 look up when I took my seat beside her. Her eyes were fixed on her plate and in a short time, she was busy eating. I tried to make conversation.

' A new play is coming to "The Globe " soon,' I said. 'Will you be seeing it?'

' No,' she answered.

'Will you be spending your holidays abroad this year ?' I asked.

' No,' she answered.

' Will you be staying in England ?' I asked.

' No,' she answered.

In despair, I asked her whether she was enjoying her dinner.

' Young man,' she answered, ' if you ate more and talked less, we would both 20 enjoy our dinner!'

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The Tower of Babel

April 26th,2010    by Eric

Now the whole earth had one language and the same words. And as they migrated from the east, they came upon a plain in the land of Shinar and settled there. And they said to one another, "Come, let us make bricks, and burn them thoroughly." And they had brick for stone, and bitumen for mortar. Then they said, "Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower with its top in the heavens, and let us make a name for ourselves; otherwise we shall be scattered abroad upon the face of the whole earth." The lord came down to see the city and the tower, which mortals had built. And the Lord said, "Ix>ok, they are one people, and they have all one language; and this is only the beginning of what they will do; nothing that they propose to do will now be impossible for them. Come, lei us go down, and confuse their language there, so that they will not understand one another's speech." So the Lord scattered them abroad from there over the face of all the earth and they left off building the city. Therefore it was called Babel, because there the Lord confused the language of all the earth; and from there the Iord scattered them abroad over the face of all the earth.

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Automated guided vehicles (AGVs)

April 23rd,2010    by Eric

AGVs are electrically powered driverless trucks for picking up, moving and placing unit loads. They are computer - controlled, although in some cases there can be manual over- ride. They are used in manufacturing operations to move work pieces between workstations and off the production line, and in warehousing operations for moving unit loads into, within and away from the warehouse system. They are usually designed to interface with other handling systems such as conveyors. A typical warehouse application would be the movement of palletized goods from goods receipt to the input conveyor of an AS/RS installation, and the subsequent movement of retrieved goods to order picking replenishment or to dispatch. In situations of high throughput and 24 — hour operation, AGVs can give considerable productivity benefits, but as with any sophisticated handling system, careful planning and design are necessary.

AGVs can be controlled in a number of ways. "Wire- m~ floor" technology is well established. The truck follows an under floor wire, which carries an alternating electrical current that induces a magnetic field around the wire. As the AGV moves, on Oxnard sensors measure the field to detect any deviation of the truck from the prescribed path. In this event, correcting signals are sent to the steering motor to bring the truck back on course.

Optical guidance also uses sensors to follow a tape strip stuck to the operating, although such systems are susceptible to wear and dirt and have not found wide application.

The most recent of control uses Sine - of - sight systems continuously to scan fixed datum points located through the working area. The scanned angles are transmitted by radio back to the controlling computer, which calculates speed and position of the truck and sends controlling and correcting instructions to the truck as appropriate.

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Robotic application

April 22nd,2010    by Eric

The use of robots for the routine stacking and e - stacking of cases onto and off pallets is well established. Robots can be programmed to stack to prescribed patterns, to build up layers on a pallet, and to use different patterns on adjacent rows to assist pallet load stability. Robots maintain quality and rate of through-put, and they do not get tarred. In routine applications such as this, they offer significant benefits, especially for continuous 24 hours per day working, which if done manually would require three operatives.

The other established use of rotates is for order picking, especially small -item picking in the pharmaceutical industry. A typical application has been computer-guided trucks fitted with robot arms, carrying a number of containers. The trucks move through a shelving installation containing the pharmaceutical products, and items are picked and placed into the containers, each container be-ing dedicated to a specific order. At the end of each picking circuit, the containers are atomically disagreed into cases for dispatch. Very rapid response, say two hours from telephoned order to dispatch to pharmacy, is claimed.

There have also been recent applications in the brewing industry where larger unit loads have to be picked from plants. In this case the number of SKUs is small. Typically, a computer — guided truck picks up an empty pallet from an in — feed conveyor, and then moves along a fixed route on cither side of which are short conveyors holding pallets of product. As the truck moves along, it is followed by an overhead gantry robot, which picks the required cases of products, by suction head, and position them on the pallet on the guided truck. When the order pallet has been stacked with the required cases, it is discharged on to an out - feed conveyor.

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Automated and robotic systems

April 21st,2010    by Eric

The picking systems described so far, however much they mechanize or automate, all require an operator or picker, to physically pick the individual items required to make up an order. It is probably fair to say that, until quite recently, order picking technology had not been developed as much as storage an even movement systems technology. This is now changing, although some of the developments have a high price tag. There are now systems that not only move goods under computer control, but also carry out the picking by controlled mechanical means.

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Order picking regimes

April 20th,2010    by Eric

Different methods of order picking are discussed later in this part, hut an-other classification must first be considered. In any one journey or circuit by a picker through a picking area, how many orders or how much of only one order should or can be picked? The answer clearly depends on the size of order, and al-so on the picking method, and size of unit load or container into which orders are being picked. A number of categories can be recognized.

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Tote bins

April 19th,2010    by Eric

Tote bins are made in a range of materials such as galvanized steel, polypropylene, wire mesh and fiberboard. They are made in modular sizes that are sub -multiples of standard dimensions, and this facilitates nesting and stacking, and the use of different sizes of tote within one installation.

A useful device for supporting tote bins, either in static storage locations or trolley- mounted for ease of movement, e. g- kit marshalling and movement from store to production assembly operations, is the louver panel. It provides easy attachment and removal of to tea, and also other attachments such as spigots for holding items such as gaskets, bells and other more awkward items.

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